Please note that the summary is generated based on the transcript and
may not capture all the nuances or details discussed in the podcast
episode.
Notes
Welcome back to Baku and another episode with the F1MG( F1 Money Gang). We have a new guest joining us today, and of course our best bets and leans for the upcoming Baku GP.
If you are not on Underdog we would love the support by registering with our link below:
Please give a follow to our guest on Twitter: @F1BetTipster
If you like our content...anything helps for us to continue to bring you the best content to make your informed decisions! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/rluZWkWru8
Summary
## Introduction
- The hosts of the F1 Money Gang podcast are excited for the upcoming Azerbaijan Grand Prix, despite the new sprint race format. - They introduce a new guest, a longtime Discord contributor and betting expert, who will share his best bet for the race.
## Guest's Best Bet
- The guest recommends a bet on Max Verstappen to win the race and achieve the fastest lap, with odds of 7 to 5. - He believes Red Bull will be dominant on this power-based track, similar to the Australian GP.
## Track Characteristics
- The Baku City Circuit is a street circuit known for its long straights and tight corners, making it a challenging track for drivers. - Tire degradation is expected to be low due to the smooth track surface.
## New Sprint Race Format
- The hosts discuss the new sprint race format, which will be used for the first time this weekend. - They express concerns about the lack of data available for betting due to the reduced practice sessions.
## Discord Community
- The F1 Money Gang Discord community has grown to nearly a thousand members, providing a platform for members to share betting ideas and strategies.
## Best Bets from the Hosts
- **Cap:** Alpine to finish in the top 10, based on their strong recent performance and Gasly's history at Baku. - **Mac:** A reverse forecast bet on Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez to finish one-two, with odds of +185. - **Lights:** Alonso to finish above 3.0 in qualifying and Leclerc to finish under 5.5 in qualifying, based on their qualifying trends this season.
## Additional Betting Insights
- **Cap:** Mercedes may be a good value bet, given their recent improvements and Ferrari's struggles. - **Chris:** A bet on the winning margin for the race being over 10 seconds is worth considering, given Max Verstappen's dominance. - **Lights:** There may be value in betting on the number of safety cars and virtual safety cars, as well as the number of classified finishers.
## Top Three Predictions
- The hosts make their predictions for the top three finishers in the race, with varying and somewhat humorous choices.
## Yuki Tsunoda's Potential
- The hosts discuss the possibility of Yuki Tsunoda finishing in the top 10, given his improved performance in recent races and the potential for chaos in the sprint race format.
## Renegade's Top 10 Bet
- The hosts highlight Renegade's bet on Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the top 10, with odds of +250, as a potential value bet.
## Race Predictions
- Max Verstappen is the favorite to win the race, with George Russell and Lewis Hamilton as potential podium finishers. - One of the Ferraris is predicted to have a DNF, with Carlos Sainz being the most likely candidate. - Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin are expected to underperform due to the car's draggy nature and poor DRS effectiveness on Baku's long straights. - Mercedes is seen to have an advantage in DRS effectiveness, which could benefit them in Baku.
## Discord Updates
- Grid Rivals lineups, DraftKings lineups, and the community bet will be shared in the Discord server. - Listeners are encouraged to join the Discord and participate in discussions and betting strategies.
## Conclusion
- The hosts express their gratitude to Underdog for sponsoring the podcast and wish listeners a successful Baku Grand Prix.
Raw Transcript with Timestamps
[00:00.000 -> 00:12.000] Welcome to another episode of the F1 Money Gang podcast guys. It's been over a month since we had our last podcast and I don't even know what F1 was to be honest with you. [00:12.000 -> 00:30.760] It's been that long since I've seen a race and I can't wait for this. I'm not too excited about the new format to be honest. This is my own opinion I'm not a fan of sprint race weekends and all this new fiasco with FP1 sprint shootout sprints race qualis it's all messed up [00:30.760 -> 00:36.120] to me but this is my own opinion but I'm excited to announce that we have a new [00:36.120 -> 00:42.640] guest here we have a longtime discord big-time contributor who has been [00:42.640 -> 00:45.120] sharing bets since day one he joined the [00:45.120 -> 00:49.200] discord we're gonna introduce him a little bit later in the podcast he's [00:49.200 -> 00:57.440] gonna give his best bet as well for the upcoming Baku Grand Prix and with [00:57.440 -> 01:06.460] that said let's go to Cap how you doing man? Good, man. We are back. Feels like our first of two summer breaks. [01:06.460 -> 01:10.660] But yeah, we got the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. [01:10.660 -> 01:14.300] We got the C3, C4, C5 compounds. [01:14.300 -> 01:17.300] So we are looking at the softest compounds. [01:17.300 -> 01:22.140] The track is set up for it's a power track. [01:22.140 -> 01:28.000] So we're going to see a lot of guys with their lower downforce set ups. [01:28.000 -> 01:29.480] Yeah, I mean, it's going to be tricky. [01:29.480 -> 01:30.860] I think some teams are also going [01:30.860 -> 01:33.600] to be looking for some some downforce as well for the turns [01:33.600 -> 01:36.640] because there's no room for error on this track. [01:36.640 -> 01:40.640] The track surface is going to be some of the lowest [01:40.640 -> 01:42.480] that you're going to see on the calendar. [01:42.480 -> 01:44.440] I would say it's almost equivalent [01:44.440 -> 01:46.560] to the Australian GP. [01:46.560 -> 01:50.240] So tire degradation won't be as bad as some of the tracks [01:50.240 -> 01:52.840] you'll see, such as like next weekend. [01:52.840 -> 01:53.360] So yeah. [01:53.360 -> 01:55.160] And then going back to your sprint format, [01:55.160 -> 01:56.400] it is pretty wild. [01:56.400 -> 01:59.160] The new format that they're coming out with. [01:59.160 -> 02:01.000] So yeah, this is going to this is [02:01.000 -> 02:03.520] a lot of unknowns for everyone. [02:03.520 -> 02:04.680] Let's just put it that way. [02:04.680 -> 02:05.060] Yeah, yeah. I'm looking forward to seeing what it comes out of. gonna this is a lot of unknowns for everyone let's just put it that way yeah [02:05.060 -> 02:10.320] yeah I'm looking forward to seeing what it comes out of and it's just getting a [02:10.320 -> 02:15.240] little bit out of hand I think but we'll see you know maybe it's gonna attract [02:15.240 -> 02:20.880] more fans so how about Chris how about you man how you doing how was the break [02:20.880 -> 02:25.760] how was everything going man it was it was good. Just living in Florida, you know, sunny sunshine [02:25.960 -> 02:29.440] Everyone's on spring break as long as f just like f1. So [02:30.200 -> 02:34.180] Time's over. We got a busy what five six weeks ahead of us [02:34.960 -> 02:40.320] Yeah, I think it was lights or you who said that there's five races in the next six weeks or so [02:40.320 -> 02:42.320] I was like, wow, I had to look at the counter to make sure [02:42.920 -> 02:46.000] You know, you were not smoking something cuz that's crazy. I'm excited. So I was like, wow, I had to look at the calendar to make sure, you know, you were not smoking something because that's crazy. [02:46.000 -> 02:48.000] I'm excited. So I'm excited. [02:48.000 -> 02:54.000] Well, good, good. You know, good to see you again. And let's welcome Lights from Canada. [02:54.000 -> 02:56.000] How is it going up there, man? [02:56.000 -> 03:00.000] Hey, thanks for having me. Great to be on for the first time all season. [03:00.000 -> 03:04.000] Things are going great in Canada. Snow's starting to melt and it's NHL playoff season. [03:04.000 -> 03:05.000] So everyone's excited. Everyone's teams are still in in Canada. Snow's starting to melt and it's NHL playoff season, so everyone's excited. [03:05.000 -> 03:07.000] Everyone's teams are still in, in the first round. [03:07.000 -> 03:10.000] And obviously I'm thrilled to have F1 back. [03:10.000 -> 03:12.000] We're three races in now. [03:12.000 -> 03:14.000] We've got some trends forming on some drivers. [03:14.000 -> 03:18.000] And just as exciting, our Discord is approaching a thousand members. [03:18.000 -> 03:23.000] And it was about a year ago we all decided to get together and start sharing ideas in one spot. [03:23.000 -> 03:27.400] And just the growth has been amazing. So I want to say thank you all to all the listeners and [03:27.400 -> 03:31.120] the discord members and just the support's been amazing this year and [03:31.120 -> 03:35.080] and let's head into the next few weeks five races in six weeks and cash some [03:35.080 -> 03:39.120] tickets together. Yeah that's right yeah I'm super excited about that the discord [03:39.120 -> 03:44.600] has been growing tremendously and it has been just amazing from everybody [03:44.600 -> 03:46.160] sharing place every week. [03:46.160 -> 03:52.040] So and you guys can find the link to the Discord in the description if you are on [03:52.040 -> 03:58.480] your Spotify, Apple, podcast or YouTube you'll be able to find that. And so with [03:58.480 -> 04:04.480] that said I want to introduce our friend who's joining from the UK, his first time [04:04.480 -> 04:07.800] on our podcast, longtime member as I mentioned in the Discord. Introduce our friend who's joining from the UK his first time on our podcast longtime member as I mentioned in the discord [04:09.160 -> 04:11.440] Introduce yourself man. How you doing? [04:12.760 -> 04:16.880] Hi guys. Thank you very much. Let me come on to the podcast [04:17.320 -> 04:24.000] As a longtime listener and now obviously part of the discord. It's really good to get on the pod [04:27.040 -> 04:30.800] part of the discord. It's really good to get on the pod at last and hopefully we can do some good stuff for Baku. So looking forward to it. [04:30.800 -> 04:37.920] Nice, nice. Yeah and we have, I have inserted your link so people can follow [04:37.920 -> 04:42.520] you on Twitter and all your social media platforms if you're not watching this, if [04:42.520 -> 04:45.080] you're just listening to the podcast and [04:45.080 -> 04:50.040] please give him a follow he has been great contributor to the community and [04:50.040 -> 04:54.840] we we appreciate you having you know being here with us so thanks a lot man [04:54.840 -> 05:02.000] and what is your best bet for this Grand Prix well I think you'd be a silly man [05:02.000 -> 05:05.720] to bet against Max Ver happen. So I am [05:12.200 -> 05:13.000] Definitely backing his dominance here at Paki. So I've gone for it fastest lap and race win [05:18.760 -> 05:19.000] And you can get it at seven to five or two point four on can be sites in the UK [05:21.840 -> 05:22.800] So uni bets grove no sports [05:27.200 -> 05:27.800] and yeah, I just see red Bull being a dominant force here again. [05:27.800 -> 05:31.880] And I don't see why he can't achieve this. [05:31.880 -> 05:32.480] Nice, yeah. [05:32.480 -> 05:39.480] And you being in the UK, what is your opinion on the new format? [05:43.480 -> 05:49.200] As a longtime F1 fan, obviously it hurts moving to sprints I was never in favor of them before [05:50.680 -> 05:54.820] Obviously on betting side I do not like having less data available to me [05:55.440 -> 06:02.640] So that swings around about I just hope it puts on a display. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, that's yeah [06:02.640 -> 06:09.000] I'm I'm definitely looking forward to it. and hopefully we have a good race and a good weekend. [06:09.000 -> 06:26.240] Well, I'm gonna start with Cap, you know, what do you have for us this week, man? lack of data is killing me. So we can even go back to the Aussie GP [06:26.240 -> 06:29.580] where we were kind of lacking some of the data in the FP2 [06:29.580 -> 06:30.460] sessions. [06:30.460 -> 06:35.300] We did get some, I guess you could say, to Leite's point. [06:35.300 -> 06:36.940] We're starting to figure out the trends. [06:36.940 -> 06:38.660] It's still early season. [06:38.660 -> 06:40.860] I kind of look at the first three or four races [06:40.860 -> 06:41.840] as preseason. [06:41.840 -> 06:42.980] So it was kind of tough. [06:42.980 -> 06:44.420] And then the approach this weekend, [06:44.420 -> 06:46.080] how do I take this new sprint? [06:46.800 -> 06:50.240] Actually, it was first, how do I take the sprint in Baku? [06:50.240 -> 06:53.440] And then this new format, it's just wild. [06:53.440 -> 06:57.160] So I went back with just looking at trends. [06:57.440 -> 07:02.520] I think that my favorite trend right now is the Alpine top ten. [07:02.520 -> 07:09.640] I think that Alpine is actually proving that they can compete with even the likes of Mercedes [07:09.640 -> 07:13.960] and Aston Martin, even though they're still going to be behind. [07:13.960 -> 07:15.560] But they are showing a capable car. [07:15.560 -> 07:18.600] They had one of the top speeds in the last race. [07:18.600 -> 07:21.920] I want to say last week every time, but it's been three weeks. [07:21.920 -> 07:26.200] And Gasly just in general has been pretty good form. [07:26.340 -> 07:30.900] And this track, I think he was like fifth or sixth last year here. [07:31.200 -> 07:31.900] He was fifth. [07:31.900 -> 07:36.400] And then in twenty twenty one, he was third and qualified [07:36.400 -> 07:41.680] even both years into Alphatorre with fourth and sixth, respectively. [07:42.080 -> 07:46.080] And he also showed last year in each FP session that he was doing well. [07:47.040 -> 07:52.400] Ocon I still kind of worry about, that's why I was worried about taking the both cars at top 10, [07:52.400 -> 07:58.880] but I still think the Alpine has a car that will be in the top 10 at the end of the race. And [07:58.880 -> 08:05.200] hopefully they won't reckon to each other like they did the last one. Yeah. And as you know, this has been a [08:06.560 -> 08:09.360] Discord fan favorite bet. [08:09.480 -> 08:13.760] And I'm sure that they might be in the voting again this week. [08:13.760 -> 08:16.240] But I guess we'll see. Right. [08:16.240 -> 08:20.160] Going back to last year, this has been my bread and butter. [08:20.360 -> 08:23.000] One of my bread and butter picks it for sure. [08:23.000 -> 08:25.680] And then it's just kept going with the community bets [08:26.240 -> 08:27.440] everyone [08:27.440 -> 08:34.480] Everyone loves big cat. Oh, come what can I say? Yeah. Hey, hey, I know man. Yeah, I mean I I know Mac does [08:35.000 -> 08:37.520] Big cat. Yeah, it's true Mac [08:38.040 -> 08:43.680] What do you like for this week man? Have you have you looked into anything? Is it a race? [08:43.680 -> 08:46.380] Is that a the free money Friday? We're waiting on that [08:46.720 -> 08:49.060] So well, listen if you know anything about me [08:49.060 -> 08:54.840] I'm here for two things bet bonus bet free money Friday and unfortunately bonus fucking sucks this year. So I'm not doing that [08:55.240 -> 09:00.600] We're gonna stick with free money Friday, and I don't want to be dead horse. But of course, this is a brainer setup [09:00.600 -> 09:02.880] We have no idea how teams are gonna approach it [09:03.600 -> 09:05.040] Much they're gonna focus on this first practice So it, how much they're going to focus on this [09:05.040 -> 09:06.040] first practice. [09:06.040 -> 09:09.720] It's not really something I want to get too into with the unit supplies, but I think I [09:09.720 -> 09:11.920] found a couple plus odd bets. [09:11.920 -> 09:14.920] We can at least put a half unit on it and double our money. [09:14.920 -> 09:18.600] And we're going to follow a trend here, and we're going to go over the margin, which is [09:18.600 -> 09:19.600] 0.25. [09:19.600 -> 09:29.520] Just trend, it's three out of three this year so far on FBA ones, nearly by double, we're almost sitting half a second on each gap. [09:29.520 -> 09:32.200] So it's like it's nearly double the line. [09:32.200 -> 09:36.160] We're gonna stick with that trend, that's a plus 150, so half unit, [09:36.160 -> 09:37.120] maybe we can get a unit out of it. [09:38.240 -> 09:42.520] Then we're gonna go just like everyone else has been saying, Red Bull. [09:42.520 -> 09:45.780] Stick with the dominance, when in doubt, doubt go with the guys are gonna get prepared [09:45.880 -> 09:53.360] That's max and check. Oh, so we're gonna go reverse forecast for one two max in check Oh plus 185 [09:54.640 -> 09:59.240] Same thing half a unit and all these bets can be found on the bull Vada [10:00.360 -> 10:02.000] And that's free money Friday, baby [10:02.000 -> 10:02.500] Yeah [10:02.500 -> 10:06.000] I was gonna ask you where where were you able to find these at? [10:06.000 -> 10:11.000] Because I don't think I've seen the Either Way bet yet on Provada. [10:11.000 -> 10:12.000] Is that a new thing? [10:12.000 -> 10:15.000] They name it a different thing. [10:15.000 -> 10:20.000] Sometimes it would be like Red Bull top two, either way, however you want to make it. [10:20.000 -> 10:23.000] But either way, it's Max and Checo one, two. [10:23.000 -> 10:30.280] Okay. Oh, wow. And I'm shocked that they actually have it forp1. That's uh, I don't think it's actually one of the better value ones [10:30.280 -> 10:36.160] Cuz you know, it's fp1. Yeah, of course, you're taking a gamble. But yeah, all right, and let's go to [10:37.080 -> 10:38.800] lights [10:38.800 -> 10:44.080] What do you like this weekend? I know you're a big pickups guy. And what do you like this week, man? [10:44.080 -> 10:45.520] I know you're a big Pick'ems guy and what do you like this week, man? [10:50.240 -> 10:50.880] Yeah, thanks buddy, I got some some sportsbook plays but just gonna focus on Pick'ems for today [10:56.080 -> 10:56.320] If any listeners don't already know we like to dial in on the F1 markets on the Pick'em apps [10:59.960 -> 11:05.600] Sometimes they're also called DFS. Price picks and underdog are the biggest ones If you're not already playing on underdog, make sure you sign up and use our code name F1MoneyGang, [11:05.600 -> 11:10.320] all one word. They'll have some lines up for Saturday and Sunday sessions. Doesn't look like [11:10.320 -> 11:16.720] they want to reel anything out for us to pick off on Friday, so we'll move over to prize picks. [11:16.720 -> 11:23.120] So on prize picks, by far the easiest line for qualifying, I think, is Alonso over 3.0. So if [11:23.120 -> 11:25.720] it hits exactly 3.0, it's obviously a push [11:25.960 -> 11:29.260] They're asking him to beat at least one of the Red Bulls for this to miss [11:29.260 -> 11:31.900] I don't think it's gonna happen the trend this year [11:32.540 -> 11:35.980] Leclerc has sucked on Sundays, but he's still been solid on qualifying [11:35.980 -> 11:40.480] Even if he isn't winning polls every every race weekend so far in three races Leclerc's been there [11:40.480 -> 11:44.780] So I would say it's the two Red Bulls and Leclerc and then Alonso's probably the fourth guy [11:44.780 -> 11:49.120] But the Mercedes have been sharp too and Sainz is always in the mix so you're asking [11:49.120 -> 11:53.920] Alonso to beat probably at least four other really solid drivers just for this line to push. [11:54.480 -> 12:00.880] He's only cracked podium in qualifying once this year and that was when Max DNF'd in Q2 in Saudi [12:00.880 -> 12:05.540] Arabia I believe it was and yeah that's about it I can understand [12:05.540 -> 12:09.740] why they started it at 3.0 Alonso has been been pushing the pace in free [12:09.740 -> 12:13.800] practice sessions but but qualifying will be obviously everybody going all [12:13.800 -> 12:17.220] out and trying their hardest and then you can also pair that with Leclerc under [12:17.220 -> 12:20.880] 5.5 I think that room has a lot of go a lot of room to go under as well he's [12:20.880 -> 12:24.620] only missed it once he got seventh place in Australia when the tire temperatures [12:24.620 -> 12:26.840] were all weird and it was just a weird track for [12:26.840 -> 12:32.340] for qualifying sessions. So threw some things out of order. So with that said I [12:32.340 -> 12:36.840] think we'll start to see a qualifying session closer to expected outcomes [12:36.840 -> 12:40.640] which would be Alonso over 3.0 and Leclerc under 5.5. [12:40.640 -> 12:44.160] Okay nice. Yeah I was gonna ask you about Leclerc because I know that you [12:44.160 -> 12:47.000] mentioned it in the discord and when I saw it at first I was gonna ask you about Leclerc, because I know that you mentioned it in the Discord. [12:47.000 -> 12:52.000] And when I saw it at first, I was like, wow, this is a really good Valley play there. [12:52.000 -> 12:59.000] So, all right, then Alonso and Leclerc. I'm gonna play them myself, too. [12:59.000 -> 13:10.000] So, I was looking at this, and I'm looking at this race and I'm gonna tread lightly but I'm actually gonna take a qualifying bet here. [13:10.000 -> 13:19.000] I do like a few bets but a qualifying bet is gonna be my man George Russell to finish in the top six in qualifier. [13:19.000 -> 13:26.400] So far this season he has been in the top six in every race he actually finished third I [13:26.400 -> 13:29.520] believe it was last race and he has been in the top six every other race [13:29.520 -> 13:36.520] qualifying I'm sorry and at these odds at minus 105 like you guys mentioned you [13:36.520 -> 13:42.360] have you know clearly that the Red Bulls the Ferraris and Austin Martins I do [13:42.360 -> 13:47.240] think that you know you know it could be a toss-up with [13:47.240 -> 13:51.760] Lewis being in the picture as well and the Austin Martins have been crazy [13:51.760 -> 13:57.520] good, the Ferraris as well, but at these odds and the trends that I have seen and [13:57.520 -> 14:02.960] I looked at his previous qualifying at Baku he has always been in the top [14:02.960 -> 14:07.080] six. He actually started in third I [14:07.080 -> 14:11.680] believe last year and he finished in third or he started fourth and he finished [14:11.680 -> 14:17.360] in third last year in Baku. I believe that the Mercedes is better at this [14:17.360 -> 14:21.800] point of the year than they were last year at the Baku Grand Prix and George [14:21.800 -> 14:25.160] is just getting better and better as a driver I think. [14:25.160 -> 14:27.960] And at these odds I just have to bet it. [14:27.960 -> 14:31.760] And that's what I like at the moment. [14:31.760 -> 14:35.040] There's lots of lines out there but I don't want to push anything, especially with this [14:35.040 -> 14:41.400] new format that we have going on this week. [14:41.400 -> 14:46.680] And is Cap do you have anything anything else that you like? [14:47.860 -> 14:55.420] Anything that you've seen this week that you might bet and you just have not pulled the trigger yet or a lot [14:55.520 -> 14:57.520] But it goes back to uncertainty [14:58.880 -> 15:04.920] Like I will make a couple comments one the Mercedes comments you're making are definitely I [15:05.640 -> 15:07.160] Like them, of course. One, the Mercedes comments you're making are definitely I like them, of course. [15:07.160 -> 15:09.240] Yeah, I'm going to love that. [15:09.240 -> 15:11.360] Lights is going to hate that. [15:11.360 -> 15:13.080] But yeah, I do. [15:13.080 -> 15:16.000] I do like the Russell pick. [15:16.000 -> 15:19.680] I think it is very interesting that Bavada had it at thirty [15:19.680 -> 15:24.640] three to one for him to win for something that could be so chaotic. [15:25.460 -> 15:27.860] I'm disclosure. I'm not saying bet it. [15:27.860 -> 15:31.400] I'm just saying it's something to keep an eye on because MGM [15:31.400 -> 15:33.200] has that like 16 to one. [15:33.200 -> 15:35.860] And I believe DK has it at twenty five to one. [15:35.860 -> 15:39.300] So if you're expecting chaos, you just don't know. [15:39.300 -> 15:39.800] Right. [15:39.800 -> 15:41.960] Like we don't know what's going to happen. [15:41.960 -> 15:43.360] These are sprint races. [15:43.360 -> 15:48.640] So if what if he is in the top three and it ends up winning one of the races? [15:48.640 -> 15:51.240] You never know. But thirty three to one is a little too rich. [15:51.920 -> 15:55.640] To go back to your original question, I want to say Ferrari, [15:55.640 -> 15:57.960] I am going back to Ferrari. [15:57.960 -> 16:01.880] I hate it. It's a tough pill to swallow. [16:02.880 -> 16:06.060] I think that there's a lot of overreaction. [16:06.060 -> 16:12.180] And I you know, this is the weekend that Ferrari can't afford to have DNFs. [16:12.180 -> 16:14.840] They can't afford to not have points. [16:15.220 -> 16:16.600] They need to have points. [16:16.600 -> 16:21.560] They need to actually not only just prove to others, but to themselves [16:21.560 -> 16:23.480] that they can actually make this work. [16:23.480 -> 16:28.180] They're just a premier team that is needing to get their shit together. [16:28.540 -> 16:32.280] Leclerc has always proven himself at this race, a racetrack, [16:32.280 -> 16:34.580] although he did have a blunder. [16:34.580 -> 16:36.640] I think it was like twenty eighteen or twenty nineteen. [16:38.320 -> 16:40.920] But yeah, I think a top six [16:40.920 -> 16:44.220] bovada had a plus one ten for both of them. [16:44.780 -> 16:46.000] That's craziness. [16:46.000 -> 16:51.000] You would never see the plus odds on both Ferraris in the past. [16:51.000 -> 16:52.800] I think that's just overreaction. [16:52.800 -> 16:58.000] And I believe Renegade might have had Leclerc for podium. [16:58.000 -> 17:02.200] But just overall, I just think that if you are looking at a bet, [17:02.200 -> 17:07.580] do not just go and sit there and say, I'm going to fade Ferrari because of Ferrari's [17:07.580 -> 17:08.920] failures in the past. [17:08.920 -> 17:10.960] You have to forward look. [17:10.960 -> 17:14.280] They can't afford to lose any more points. [17:14.280 -> 17:15.800] Yeah, I like that. [17:15.800 -> 17:19.280] That's just you have to look at them as a top six team. [17:19.280 -> 17:21.800] Still, they are still a top 16. [17:21.800 -> 17:24.200] Oh, yeah, and I mean, like last last week was just [17:24.200 -> 17:25.360] just unfortunate events with I [17:25.360 -> 17:31.760] mean, last race with Leclerc and then yeah, I mean, signs would have been in what fourth if it [17:31.760 -> 17:37.440] wasn't for the penalty and then Leclerc who's who's to say like if he were to be on track, he was he [17:37.440 -> 17:44.400] was proven himself at least what did he end up in like a third fourth or something like that in [17:44.400 -> 17:46.000] quality? I don't remember it feels like forever [17:46.000 -> 17:49.120] So I'm just saying like you can't fate you can't fade them [17:49.120 -> 17:53.340] and then the only the other reason why is they're better set up for this track than [17:53.440 -> 17:57.640] Aston Martin would be in the past Aston Martin has always had [17:57.880 -> 18:01.420] Like a pretty draggy car and they were always terrible on the straights [18:01.520 -> 18:06.580] They're a little bit better this year, but they are still lacking in some of those efficiencies [18:06.580 -> 18:10.840] when it comes to drag, but definitely a lot better. [18:10.840 -> 18:11.840] So we'll see. [18:11.840 -> 18:12.840] I don't know. [18:12.840 -> 18:13.840] Nice, nice. [18:13.840 -> 18:14.840] All right. [18:14.840 -> 18:15.840] That's good. [18:15.840 -> 18:16.840] Chris, what do you have? [18:16.840 -> 18:18.000] Do you have anything that you like? [18:18.000 -> 18:22.840] Any other bets that our listeners can bet that you love? [18:22.840 -> 18:23.840] What you got? [18:23.840 -> 18:26.140] Yeah, I'm going gonna stick with the margins here [18:26.140 -> 18:32.740] I'm actually just went back and check last year's and uh, you can get the winning margin for the race over 10 seconds right now [18:32.740 -> 18:34.240] It's a even money [18:34.240 -> 18:36.440] This is going like 20 seconds plus [18:37.080 -> 18:38.680] here [18:38.680 -> 18:40.680] Actually would have cashed in Australia, of course [18:41.360 -> 18:43.720] no reason to go back on that madness, but I [18:45.840 -> 18:51.880] Australia of course, no reason to go back on that madness, but I mean Max, to win by 10 seconds, I don't see any reason not to, especially with the results in the past. [18:51.880 -> 18:59.500] Since you were, sorry to cut you off, I apologize, but I know that you and Cap are wearing a [18:59.500 -> 19:02.920] Williams t-shirt here today. [19:02.920 -> 19:07.560] Do you guys like the fastest or the top speed at plus 600? [19:07.560 -> 19:09.120] Do you guys like that for the race? [19:09.120 -> 19:11.720] I mean, Williams has shown to have a lot of speed. [19:11.720 -> 19:16.000] And with this track being such as the end of the lap [19:16.000 -> 19:18.120] with the big straightaway, maybe? [19:18.120 -> 19:18.720] No? [19:18.720 -> 19:19.760] You guys like it? [19:19.760 -> 19:20.680] Yeah. [19:20.680 -> 19:21.180] Yeah. [19:21.180 -> 19:22.720] I think they're definitely fast. [19:22.720 -> 19:24.080] Yeah. [19:24.080 -> 19:46.960] I kind of am a little more bullish on Williams this weekend than normal. the So that's going to be their only crutch. But I think from an odds perspective, [19:47.080 -> 19:51.280] you might want to consider Haas because they were at like 22 to one [19:51.600 -> 19:55.540] and they typically have pretty good DRS effectiveness, too. [19:55.540 -> 19:58.740] So they, I believe, were very close. [19:58.740 -> 20:01.560] I again can't remember if it's this last race or Jetta, [20:02.020 -> 20:05.760] but if it wasn't for Max or Perez always trying [20:05.760 -> 20:10.240] to go for that extra point right now, they would have hit. [20:10.240 -> 20:12.120] I think we were able to get at 41. [20:12.120 -> 20:15.240] And I believe F1 bet tipster also was on that as well. [20:15.240 -> 20:17.240] That one weekend we had it. [20:17.240 -> 20:20.960] So yeah, I believe it was Jetta. [20:20.960 -> 20:21.720] It was Jetta. [20:21.720 -> 20:22.220] Yeah. [20:22.220 -> 20:25.360] So it was Jetta where we were kind of bullish on that [20:25.360 -> 20:27.360] we were talking about that and I [20:27.920 -> 20:29.920] Just think from an odds perspective [20:30.120 -> 20:35.440] 22 to 1 is more juicy for me to take on that than 6 to 1 but [20:36.360 -> 20:41.380] You can't Williams should I wouldn't be surprised me if you saw Williams in q3 [20:41.880 -> 20:47.000] Let me put it that way. Yeah, it's not bad. I mean, the American crowd's going to like it with Logan [20:47.000 -> 20:47.500] in there. [20:47.500 -> 20:48.920] So. [20:48.920 -> 20:50.520] Hey, he's just getting ready for Miami. [20:50.520 -> 20:51.200] It's no big deal. [20:51.200 -> 20:52.160] Oh, yeah, yeah. [20:52.160 -> 20:53.280] He's getting prepped. [20:53.280 -> 20:53.920] Yeah, you know. [20:53.920 -> 20:57.040] Hometown boy's coming home. [20:57.040 -> 20:58.560] Lights, how about you? [20:58.560 -> 20:59.600] Do you like anything? [20:59.600 -> 21:01.240] I know you love Lance Stroh. [21:01.240 -> 21:02.640] He's your country man. [21:02.640 -> 21:03.480] Do you like anything? [21:03.480 -> 21:10.160] Austin Martin, do you like any other bets? I know you post a lot on the discord, you have a lot of stuff out there, but what is it [21:10.160 -> 21:17.040] that you love? Yeah, Noria's just been shopping lines all week across a few different books and [21:17.040 -> 21:22.880] I'd highly recommend if people are looking for some arbitrages you might find them in anything [21:22.880 -> 21:28.800] to do with like number of safety cars, number of virtual safety cars, over under classified, etc. Found [21:28.800 -> 21:34.000] some good value there early in the week. There's a couple books offering safety [21:34.000 -> 21:39.160] car and virtual safety car, both to happen for under minus 200. If you can [21:39.160 -> 21:44.680] find anything under minus 200 there's value there. It's just, yeah, it [21:44.680 -> 21:46.240] would be shocking if there was no safety car [21:46.240 -> 21:50.640] and the way they've been calling the virtual safety cars preemptively before the safety cars [21:52.240 -> 21:58.960] they seem to go together well. Besides that yeah tails a couple guys on the classified number [21:58.960 -> 22:05.200] under 16 and a half found that at plus money. I think most books are offering it at around minus 110 [22:11.840 -> 22:16.040] Seems like you know hot hot Middle Eastern heat Street Circuit walls some new drivers still and then a busy weekend for the engines They're gonna have to push decently hard on Saturday in that sprint or at least most of them are so [22:16.600 -> 22:22.280] The question is where does that leave some of these engines come Sunday? So I think we'll see at least four [22:22.880 -> 22:26.580] Four guys not finish and found plus money at that at plus 105 [22:26.580 -> 22:30.360] so under 16 and a half classified would be my other bet I'd suggest as well as [22:31.060 -> 22:33.060] both both virtual and and [22:33.400 -> 22:37.460] Real safety car if you can find it anywhere under minus 200 should be solid as well [22:38.160 -> 22:44.620] Yeah, I actually was looking at that over because I was under the impression like hey if we you know [22:44.620 -> 22:49.280] We have a lot of new drivers on the grid and I was gonna bet you over but then [22:49.280 -> 22:54.600] you bring up a very good point that with this new expanded format you got a lot [22:54.600 -> 22:59.240] more racing this weekend as far as you know pushing the car lots of new young [22:59.240 -> 23:05.480] drivers all look out there that don't know the track. So I want to tell you on that one. I really like that a lot and [23:06.900 -> 23:08.900] What about you [23:09.160 -> 23:11.460] Hester what do you got anything else that you like? [23:14.260 -> 23:18.620] Well, I know lights is on this one with me as well [23:19.240 -> 23:21.240] Ghazali top six qualifier [23:21.640 -> 23:23.640] He goes around this track like a bull [23:24.320 -> 23:27.560] and if we flash back to 2021 [23:27.560 -> 23:34.360] Charles Leclerc stole pole in a mediocre Ferrari so anything can happen here if [23:34.360 -> 23:39.800] there's a red flag in quali sessions you never know. Gazi could be up there but I [23:39.800 -> 23:44.360] also think he could be up there on merit. The car looks quick. I expect it to go [23:44.360 -> 23:45.000] well in qualies [23:45.000 -> 23:47.040] Maybe race it will suffer a little bit [23:47.960 -> 23:53.520] But my other big long shot as well that I really like is for stopping to win by 10 plus seconds [23:53.640 -> 23:58.560] Have the fastest lap and red bull fastest pit stop at 7 to 1 [23:59.640 -> 24:06.800] I think that's just just really good value considering obviously I've tips the fastest lap and the win already [24:07.920 -> 24:12.200] Red Bull and Ferrari. I know they've been trading fastest pit stop so far this season [24:13.120 -> 24:17.160] But we can always count on the Red Bulls pit crew to do their job [24:18.240 -> 24:21.400] So again at seven to one, I think that's some good value [24:22.200 -> 24:24.200] And that's over on B win [24:24.880 -> 24:27.000] So if you can get on that I definitely give a [24:27.600 -> 24:29.920] Couple of quid here and there to both those tips [24:30.960 -> 24:32.960] Nice, and I love that [24:33.040 -> 24:35.960] Yeah, that's a I think that make is on a similar bed [24:35.960 -> 24:41.080] But only with a big margin that test seconds and I think that last year was over double-dibbing [24:41.080 -> 24:46.400] We're going back in I think you said that last year, I think the margin was like 20 plus seconds, right? [24:46.400 -> 24:51.400] Yeah, it almost hit 21. And then the next guy was 45 seconds behind them. [24:51.400 -> 24:57.400] And now being Red Bull even more powerful than they were last year, I could see this easily coming through. [24:57.400 -> 24:59.400] I like that one as well. [24:59.400 -> 25:07.600] Alright, well that's good. You guys got some some good insight here. But I have a you know, we started a little game [25:08.140 -> 25:13.740] a couple races ago of us predicting the top three [25:14.380 -> 25:16.580] final standing at the end of the race. [25:17.220 -> 25:19.120] Capra, what do you got, my friend? [25:19.120 -> 25:20.520] What we're going to be the top? [25:20.520 -> 25:25.280] Hold on. We we have to I think we have to go back and recap. [25:25.280 -> 25:26.560] We you have that. [25:26.560 -> 25:28.560] I actually don't have it. So go ahead. [25:28.560 -> 25:32.160] I think I do. I think I do somewhere. [25:32.160 -> 25:34.880] I just need to pull up my sheets because I. [25:35.480 -> 25:40.560] Oh, but let me just go with, you know, this is how I've been doing it. [25:40.600 -> 25:43.720] I've obviously been going against the grain. [25:43.720 -> 25:47.000] Everyone's picking Max. That's just too fun. [25:47.000 -> 25:49.600] That's just not too fun, I should say. [25:49.600 -> 25:53.400] I want to have some fun, so I like to bring chaos into this prediction. [25:53.400 -> 25:55.600] Assuming one of them wrecks. [25:55.600 -> 25:59.600] I'm going to say Russell wins this goddang thing. [25:59.600 -> 26:01.600] I'm going to say George Russell. [26:02.600 -> 26:06.040] I'm going to say Charles LeClair. And I'm going say George Russell. I'm gonna say Charles Leclerc. [26:07.120 -> 26:12.120] And I'm gonna say Louis Hamilton. [26:12.480 -> 26:16.320] I'm gonna, I'm just, again, do not bet this crap. [26:16.320 -> 26:17.600] Please do not bet this crap. [26:17.600 -> 26:22.200] If you're listening, this is absolute, just dumb stuff. [26:22.200 -> 26:24.060] But this is what makes it fun. [26:24.060 -> 26:29.280] I just played you a clip that Louis said that this car is dragging down. It's it's very slow [26:29.280 -> 26:31.280] I'm dragging all y'all down right now [26:32.400 -> 26:34.960] you're I mean if this hits you're [26:35.760 -> 26:42.440] I'm a master. I mean, but I mean I could sit there and say yes, Max Perez and then [26:43.120 -> 26:46.360] Alonso, but nah, I want to have fun with this. [26:46.360 -> 26:49.840] All right Chris what about you what do you like for the top three I know you [26:49.840 -> 26:55.480] did pretty well I think it was in Jeddah you I think you had like all three of [26:55.480 -> 26:58.480] them but they were like in a kind of like a reverse order but you had all [26:58.480 -> 27:25.600] those words yeah all right I'm thinking gonna keep it pretty pretty simple the Yeah, no man, yeah, what is Charles doing over here trying to get no hit in the car, you know [27:27.960 -> 27:32.680] He can't figure out his tires so he's got to figure out the piano, you know, yeah [27:34.480 -> 27:37.660] What about you lights what do you got top three [27:39.520 -> 27:42.140] Perez max Hamilton [27:44.840 -> 27:50.680] Boring Max Hamilton boring I just can't give it to the guy wants to win you know the guy [27:50.680 -> 27:59.960] wants to Hamilton third that's what plus 1000 you cracks podium here [28:03.120 -> 28:05.800] I think I found the last one, but keep going. Yeah, no, no, no. [28:05.800 -> 28:08.560] Diffster, what do you got, man? [28:08.560 -> 28:09.560] For the top three. [28:09.560 -> 28:12.200] Right, I'll go reverse order. [28:12.200 -> 28:15.920] So third place, Perez. [28:15.920 -> 28:17.600] Second Verstappen. [28:17.600 -> 28:20.920] And first place, Yuki Tsunoda. [28:20.920 -> 28:21.920] I love it! [28:21.920 -> 28:22.920] Yes! [28:22.920 -> 28:23.920] Thank you! [28:23.920 -> 28:24.920] My man! [28:24.920 -> 28:27.000] Finally! I love it! Yes! Thank you! My man! Finally! I love it! [28:27.000 -> 28:35.000] Before we continue on that, we definitely need a detail of what happens in this race for Yuki to finish in first place. [28:35.000 -> 28:46.800] Is there 19... no, like 17 people did not finish the race and the other two guys were just 20 seconds behind penalties or what happening [28:46.800 -> 28:49.380] What's going on? Tell us about about that. I [28:50.600 -> 28:52.600] Think he just wins it on merit [28:52.720 -> 28:54.720] He's just a little space [28:55.520 -> 28:57.520] Yeah [28:58.200 -> 29:01.000] He's just that good guys, he's just a is [29:01.520 -> 29:04.160] Yuki, I mean like Yuki has been getting better though [29:04.160 -> 29:08.600] I gotta say I was not a fan of him the first year, but I think that he's got he's getting better and better [29:08.600 -> 29:10.240] I think so [29:10.240 -> 29:15.840] And you need the market to in Japan to keep f1 more engaged. So [29:16.480 -> 29:19.880] while we're on that topic, I think that [29:20.520 -> 29:27.880] Renegade placed the bet for top 10. And I think that is an absolute banger of a bet, [29:27.880 -> 29:31.020] because if he does get anywhere, sniffs anywhere near that, [29:31.480 -> 29:35.260] he's going to be he's his odds are going to be like plus 110. [29:35.480 -> 29:38.760] If that for I think he's at like three to one right now. [29:38.860 -> 29:42.160] So, yeah, last I saw was like 350. [29:42.160 -> 29:44.000] So plus 250, I think it was. [29:44.000 -> 29:45.640] I think he has went down. Yaz went down a little bit. [29:45.640 -> 29:48.880] Look at his performance in FP1, 2, and 3. [29:48.880 -> 29:54.480] He was in the top 10 in every session, basically. [29:54.480 -> 29:59.200] And I think he ended up what, top 10 last year too? [29:59.200 -> 29:59.700] Yeah. [29:59.700 -> 30:02.080] I think so. [30:02.080 -> 30:09.120] Hey, you never know. He might actually win. He might actually win. That's what the trend says. [30:09.120 -> 30:10.640] That'll be wild, I guess. [30:10.640 -> 30:12.800] They'll never cash that ticket, but it might happen. [30:13.840 -> 30:15.120] Yeah, you just never know. [30:16.400 -> 30:26.300] Here, let me quickly just tell you, the last time we did this, we also did DNF as well so just FYI we did that as one of our [30:26.300 -> 30:34.060] picks. So Jinx had Max LeClair Checo and DNF was signed so he was close he just [30:34.060 -> 30:45.640] had the DNF wrong by the wrong driver. Renegade had Max Leire, Alonzo, ChecoDNF. [30:45.640 -> 30:52.500] And then, Dolcetto, you had Max, Alonzo, Perez with SignsDNF. [30:52.500 -> 30:56.700] And I had LeClaire, Checo, Alonzo with a MaxDNF. [30:56.700 -> 30:59.260] Man, I'm just a Max hater, too. [30:59.260 -> 31:00.260] Jesus. [31:00.260 -> 31:03.660] I mean, you clearly don't like him, yeah. [31:03.660 -> 31:07.480] Well, I'm going to, for mine, I'm gonna, for mine, I'm gonna stick with, [31:07.480 -> 31:10.680] I'm gonna be like Chris, I'm gonna go boring, [31:10.680 -> 31:13.200] max one, check, go two. [31:13.200 -> 31:15.760] But for the third one, I'm still gonna stick with George. [31:15.760 -> 31:19.800] I think George is, you know, I was gonna pick Hamilton, [31:19.800 -> 31:22.040] but I think George has improved a lot, [31:22.040 -> 31:24.680] and he's my favorite driver on the grid, [31:24.680 -> 31:27.640] so I just wanna root for him to do good. [31:27.640 -> 31:29.680] So I want to see him on the podium again. [31:29.680 -> 31:32.160] I want to see him cry of happiness. [31:32.160 -> 31:35.040] I mean, so I want to stick with that. [31:35.040 -> 31:38.480] And for DNF, I will say we're going [31:38.480 -> 31:39.960] to see one of the Ferraris. [31:39.960 -> 31:42.120] I will say this time would be science. [31:42.120 -> 31:43.000] How about that? [31:43.000 -> 31:45.400] This is my 10th. [31:48.560 -> 31:53.560] You're just slandering these guys just every week. I mean, until they prove me wrong, I can't. [31:53.560 -> 31:54.840] Trendest friend. [31:54.840 -> 31:56.200] Trendest friend. [31:56.200 -> 31:59.080] I will say we've done it again, boys. [31:59.080 -> 32:02.880] We have absolutely faded Alonzo once again. [32:02.880 -> 32:04.560] Not a single person has mentioned him. [32:04.560 -> 32:06.200] Yeah. You're right. You're right [32:06.200 -> 32:12.160] I faded on the quality. Okay. Well, I would like to hear this from f1 bet tipster [32:12.160 -> 32:16.680] Actually, like do you actually believe Alonzo or asked to Martin? [32:17.200 -> 32:23.060] Yeah, they're gonna be over performers or under performers this weekend at Baku [32:24.960 -> 32:25.200] Definitely under or under performers this weekend at Baku? [32:29.760 -> 32:30.920] Definitely under with regard to the previous few races, for sure. [32:30.920 -> 32:34.600] I just think even though they've got a new rear wing, [32:34.600 -> 32:36.560] I still think the car's a little bit too draggy [32:36.560 -> 32:39.960] and they're gonna be caught out by the long straights [32:39.960 -> 32:43.440] of Baku and their DRS isn't the best on the grid. [32:43.440 -> 32:45.360] I think it's actually the worst so [32:46.000 -> 32:53.120] Yeah, unfortunately fade am as much as you can in my opinion and I know that hurts to say so [32:57.160 -> 33:02.800] Me I mean I just look you got the DRS effectiveness. I think you are correct [33:02.800 -> 33:06.240] Yeah, that was one of the worst on the grid. [33:06.240 -> 33:10.280] I think that Mercedes has an advantage in that area. [33:10.280 -> 33:13.600] Not by much, but still, I think you're spot on. [33:13.600 -> 33:16.560] That straight is going to probably kill them. [33:16.560 -> 33:19.760] And we saw last year with Monza, even though Alonso [33:19.760 -> 33:21.240] wasn't on Aston Martin. [33:21.240 -> 33:23.780] But let's remember, you remember there was a lot of hype going [33:23.780 -> 33:26.520] into Monza and then all of a sudden, Monza hits. [33:26.520 -> 33:30.000] And you're like, holy cow, why are they so bad? [33:30.000 -> 33:34.120] That's a big reason why, is that car was really draggy. [33:34.120 -> 33:36.200] And they've improved it this year, [33:36.200 -> 33:40.520] but we may see the flaws this weekend. [33:40.520 -> 33:42.120] Awesome, awesome stuff, guys. [33:42.120 -> 33:52.000] All right, well,, I just want to say, you know, I appreciate Dipster joining us from the UK. [33:52.000 -> 33:56.000] We're going to look forward to having you again here on the pod. [33:56.000 -> 34:02.000] And also I want to mention that if you guys are in the Discord, and if you're not, please get in. [34:02.000 -> 34:05.440] But we're going gonna have our grid rivals [34:05.440 -> 34:09.920] lineups out there I know lots of the guys are on grid rivals we have a link [34:09.920 -> 34:14.520] to join the league as well and I know there's a few of us who share DraftKings [34:14.520 -> 34:19.360] lineups I know that we should have won the one a few weeks ago but thanks to [34:19.360 -> 34:25.580] penalties we got screwed by the payout so look out for the DraftKings signups as well in [34:25.580 -> 34:30.860] the discord we'll be posting those as soon as the sprint is done I guess now [34:30.860 -> 34:35.800] with a new format so just to look out because we have an early Sunday morning [34:35.800 -> 34:42.680] race here in North America so check it out by Saturday night hopefully and we [34:42.680 -> 34:50.080] gonna have I'm sure that all of us are gonna have picks in the discord we each of us have a channel that we post [34:50.080 -> 34:54.680] our picks in there so please check it out as well as the community bet we're [34:54.680 -> 35:00.840] gonna have our community bet started I believe after the sprint is done so so [35:00.840 -> 35:08.080] get in there put your vote in and hopefully this week we don't get screwed by two teammates [35:08.080 -> 35:13.540] and we actually win the community bet, because we've been doing very great. [35:13.540 -> 35:17.280] Anything else you guys have for the listeners? [35:17.280 -> 35:18.280] Anything else? [35:18.280 -> 35:19.280] Any input? [35:19.280 -> 35:20.280] Any long shots? [35:20.280 -> 35:24.800] Discord-wise, I saw T-man's got a bunch of picks out. [35:24.800 -> 35:25.000] It looks like he's done some of his due diligences on there. So Discord-wise, I saw T-man's got a bunch of picks out. [35:25.000 -> 35:27.120] Looks like he's done some of his due diligences on there. [35:27.120 -> 35:29.400] So Discord-wise, definitely give him a view. [35:29.400 -> 35:30.520] He's got a bunch. [35:30.520 -> 35:32.720] Yeah, there's basically every market [35:32.720 -> 35:37.160] covered between all tipsters, whatever you're interested in. [35:37.160 -> 35:38.120] Yeah, yeah. [35:38.120 -> 35:43.080] All right, guys, and I want to say thanks to Underdog again [35:43.080 -> 35:49.360] for sponsoring this podcast. And let's have a good Baku Grand Prix [35:49.360 -> 35:53.840] and hopefully we win some bets. Alright guys, until the next one. [35:53.840 -> 35:54.160] See ya!